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The links from weak institutions and sudden stops to currency substitution and liability dollarization – and then the links from liability dollarization to a collapse balance sheets and economic downturn – naturally differ from country to country. But currency depreciations and
sudden stops bring about large changes in relative prices, and have a deep impact on income distribution and wealth (Calvo, Izquierdo and Talvi, 2002). In addition, the sudden stop is typically associated with a sharp fall in growth rates if not outright collapse in output and employment. A floating exchange rate is clearly the wrong prescription for this situation, since it allows the sharp depreciation that cripples balance sheets and the financial sector. But under the dual stresses of weak institutions and sudden stops, it is not clear that a fixed exchange rate is sustainable, either. Rather than focusing on the choice of exchange rate regime, the appropriate answer to this situation would seem to be an improvement in fiscal, financial, and monetary institutions. Such an improvement would limit the amount of currency substitution and liability dollarization, and also make the economy more resilient in reacting to sudden stops when they occur. In other (more graphic) words, "it's the institutions stupid."
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